Recently the Kenyan army crossed into neighbouring Somalia to attack Alshabab whom they have accused of a series of kidnappings inside Kenyan soil - a claim largely disagreed among political commentators. While Alshabab is capable of doing that, from experience these acts doesn't fit into their style of operations. That not withstanding, the Kenyan army is now in a fully fledged military operation in Southern Somalia. Although i hate Alshabab (i guess every Somali does), i am not a big fan of the Kenyan army either. This has to do with their poor record on human rights which might even be worse when they are dealing with the marginalized ethnic Somali Kenyans. From extra-judicial killings to the Wagalla massacre and the many other ills committed against our brothers on the other side of the border, this is the kind of army i would least trust with anything. I am already hearing they bombed a refugee camp in southern Somalia and sunk a fishing boat.
Kenya has the right to defend its sovereignty and secure its borders but i believe the military incursion should have been the last thing they should have done. Alshabab might have been a nuisance before, but after the military operation they are a real problem. There were a couple of suspected Alshabab attacks in Kenya in which lives were lost. In another words, a stun warning to Kenya that Alshabab is capable of striking hard and deep into Kenya. I expected that.
Was this a good idea? of course not. The threat from Shabab was minimal and unless Kenya wanted to help the weak transitional Somali government in combating Alshabab, this was not in the interest of Kenya. They cannot bear the consequence and will of course be a prolonged one and brutal war for Kenya. However, my biggest concern is the Somalis in Kenya. The Kenyan government will and have responded to any suspected terror attacks with their heavy handed brutal police force. Curfews and racial profiling will be a common thing. And the Somalis will bear the biggest brunt. I know what this means.
What were the alternatives to this? Well, I don't think any foreign army will defeat Shabab. Any foreign incursion will bolster their ranks and sell their propaganda easily. From experience Somalis are known to resist any foreign occupation and this might go down with them easily. The Ethiopians failed. The Amisom forces are finding it hard staying in Somalia any longer. That said, the best alternative for Kenya would have been creating some kind of buffer zone and this could have achieved by arming local militias and regional governments fighting Alshabab. This has been successful in the recent past. Thanks to the Kenyan support and the creation of the Azania state, large parts of southern Somalia have liberated from Alshabab. Providing training and logistical support to these forces would have wiped out the Alshabab menace.
What the Kenyan government is thinking about, I don't know. Lets wait and see.
